Kotak Securities’ 2026 outlook sees equities on firm footing, gold shining through global uncertainty

THEBUSINESSBYTES BUREAU

MUMBAI, DECEMBER 10, 2025

Kotak Securities Ltd (“Kotak Neo”) on Tuesday unveiled its Market Outlook 2026, projecting a resilient trajectory for Indian equities and a sustained allure for commodities, particularly gold, even as global markets grapple with uncertainty. The comprehensive report highlights key macroeconomic trends, sectoral opportunities and commodity forecasts that are expected to shape investor decisions in the year ahead.

Sharing the firm’s perspective, Shripal Shah, Managing Director and CEO of Kotak Securities, said India continues to stand out as a growth beacon amid global turbulence. He noted that the outlook for equities remains optimistic, underpinned by strong earnings visibility and supportive policy measures, while gold is expected to retain its status as a preferred safe-haven asset through 2026. Shah also pointed to rising participation from younger investors, which he believes will deepen market engagement and accelerate long-term wealth creation.

Referring to structural opportunities within the financial ecosystem, Shah highlighted findings from the latest SEBI survey, which reveal that while nearly 63 per cent of households are aware of at least one securities market product, only 9.5 per cent actively invest. This gap, he said, underscores the vast untapped potential of India’s equity markets and places a responsibility on brokerage firms to make investing more inclusive, accessible and investor-friendly.

The outlook report notes that Indian equity markets, after witnessing a sharp 17 per cent correction from their September 2024 peaks, staged a strong recovery with the Nifty 50 touching a fresh all-time high by the end of calendar year 2025. Large-cap stocks led the rebound, while mid- and small-cap segments trailed. Sectorally, automobiles, banking and metals emerged as outperformers, whereas IT and FMCG stocks remained under pressure. Persistent foreign portfolio investor outflows were effectively cushioned by strong domestic participation, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of Indian markets. Robust activity in the primary markets further reflected sustained investor optimism.

On valuations and earnings, Kotak Securities expects Nifty earnings to grow 17.6 per cent in FY27 and 14.8 per cent in FY28. Under its base case scenario, the brokerage projects the Nifty to reach 29,120 by December 2026, assuming a price-to-earnings multiple of 20 times on FY28 estimated earnings. The bull case pegs the index at 32,032, while a more cautious bear case places it at 26,208. For calendar year 2026, the firm has identified BFSI, technology, healthcare and hospitality as its preferred sectors.

In commodities, the report maintains a positive stance on precious metals. Gold, which delivered a stellar performance in 2025 with gains exceeding 55 per cent and prices crossing $4,000 per ounce, is expected to remain strong, supported by macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and continued central bank buying. In India, gold prices rose nearly 60 per cent, aided by rupee depreciation. Silver outshone gold with gains of around 100 per cent, driven by safe-haven demand and structural supply deficits, despite some industrial headwinds linked to tariffs. Crude oil, however, declined 19 per cent amid surplus supply, setting a cautious tone for 2026, while base metals such as copper and aluminium are expected to stay firm due to electrification-led demand and supply constraints, albeit with ongoing volatility.