THEBUSINESSBYTES BUREAU

NEW DELHI, JUNE 4, 2026

The southwest monsoon officially arrived over Kerala on Thursday, ushering in India’s most critical rainfall season and setting the stage for the agricultural and economic fortunes of the country over the coming months.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that the monsoon has advanced across Kerala and Mahe while expanding into large parts of the Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, sections of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, and vast stretches of the Bay of Bengal. The development signals the formal onset of the four-month southwest monsoon season, which typically spans from June to September.

Although the monsoon usually reaches Kerala around June 1, this year’s onset came after a brief delay, despite earlier forecasts suggesting an arrival as early as May 26. The delayed onset has been closely watched by farmers, policymakers and businesses, given the monsoon’s vital role in supporting agriculture, water resources and rural demand.

The arrival comes against the backdrop of a less optimistic seasonal outlook. The IMD has projected rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season at around 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), placing it on the threshold of the “deficient” category. The country’s seasonal LPA, calculated from rainfall data between 1971 and 2020, stands at 87 centimetres.

Weather experts attribute the subdued rainfall outlook partly to the gradual emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is typically associated with weaker monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent and can influence rainfall distribution across key agricultural regions.

According to the IMD, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently transitioning toward El Niño, with the phenomenon expected to remain weak during June before strengthening to moderate or even strong levels by September.

Despite concerns over the seasonal forecast, the monsoon’s arrival in Kerala provides a much-needed boost to agricultural preparations and marks the beginning of its northward journey across the country. The pace and spread of the rains in the coming weeks will be closely monitored, as they will determine crop prospects, reservoir levels and the broader trajectory of the rural economy.