Odisha’s rainfall rises 11pc, but extreme heat and climate risks intensify: CEEW

THEBUSINESSBYTES BUREAU

BHUBANESWAR, AUGUST 19, 2026

Odisha’s monsoon may be getting wetter, but the state is simultaneously staring at a far more uncomfortable climate future, with rising temperatures, warmer nights and increasingly uneven rainfall patterns threatening to put additional pressure on agriculture, water resources, public health and livelihoods, according to a new climate intelligence assessment by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).

The assessment, based on CEEW’s Climate Resilience Analytics and Visualisation Intelligence System (CRAVIS), shows that Odisha’s average monsoon rainfall increased by 11 per cent from 1,052 mm during 1981-2010 to 1,159 mm during 2011-2024. The trend is projected to continue, with average monsoon rainfall expected to reach 1,211 mm during 2031-2050 and 1,309 mm during 2051-2070.

However, the increase in rainfall does not necessarily translate into greater water security for the state. CEEW researchers cautioned that climate change could make Odisha’s monsoon increasingly erratic, with some districts witnessing excessive rainfall while others experience deficits, prolonged dry spells or relatively stable conditions.

The findings were presented at a knowledge-sharing roundtable in Bhubaneswar on Wednesday on “Strengthening Climate Resilience through AI-Driven Climate Decisions and Actions”, where CEEW demonstrated CRAVIS, described as a first-of-its-kind AI-powered climate intelligence platform designed to support climate-informed decision-making.

For Odisha, the assessment paints a particularly significant picture because of the state’s long coastline, exposure to cyclones and floods, and strong dependence on monsoon rainfall. Alongside changing precipitation patterns, the state is expected to face a steep escalation in extreme heat and night-time temperatures in the coming decades.

The number of extremely hot days is projected to rise sharply across Odisha. During the 1981-2010 baseline period, 37 per cent of the state’s districts experienced between 61 and 80 days a year when maximum temperatures crossed 35 degrees Celsius, while 27 per cent recorded between 80 and 89 such days.

By 2031-2050, around 40 per cent of Odisha’s districts are projected to experience 108-121 days annually with maximum temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius, while another 20 per cent could record 121-137 such days. By 2051-2070, more than half of the state’s districts are projected to experience 121-137 days of such extreme heat every year.

The threat is not confined to daytime temperatures. Night-time heat is also expected to intensify substantially, reducing the body’s ability to recover from daytime heat and increasing risks to human health, labour productivity and economic activity.

In Odisha, the average number of nights annually with minimum temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius increased from 67 during the baseline period to 71 during 2011-2024. The number is projected to surge to 138 nights during 2031-2050 and 146 nights by 2051-2070.

The geographical spread of such hot nights is also expected to widen considerably. During 1981-2010, about 70 per cent of Odisha’s districts recorded fewer than 76 nights a year with minimum temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius. By 2031-2050, 37 per cent of districts are projected to experience 136-152 such nights, while another 27 per cent could record 152-182 nights. By 2051-2070, 43 per cent of districts are projected to experience 152-182 nights above the 25-degree Celsius threshold.

Taken together, the projections point towards a climate paradox for Odisha: more monsoon rainfall on average, but greater uncertainty over where and when it will fall, coupled with a dramatic rise in heat exposure. The combination could intensify pressure on farming, livestock, drinking water supplies, health systems and rural livelihoods.

At the national level, CEEW’s assessment also highlights the growing scale of India’s heat challenge. More than 57 per cent of districts and nearly 75 per cent of the country’s population are already exposed to high or very high heat risk.

The CRAVIS analysis shows that during 1981-2010, only 15 per cent of Indian districts experienced more than 116 days a year with maximum temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius. This share is projected to rise to 46 per cent during 2031-2050 and 57 per cent during 2051-2070.

Night-time heat is expected to increase even faster. While only seven per cent of districts recorded more than 107 nights annually with minimum temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius during the baseline period, the share is projected to rise to 47 per cent by 2031-2050 and 59 per cent by 2051-2070.

 “CRAVIS can deliver real impact when embedded into local-scale decision-making. It makes complex climate intelligence accessible to policymakers, industrialists, financial experts, journalists, and urban planners,” CEEW Fellow Dr Vishwas Chitale said.

He said state departments could use city- and district-level heat and rainfall indicators to strengthen heat action plans and preparedness strategies, while urban local bodies could integrate climate layers into master plans and infrastructure investments.

Regulators and utilities, he added, could use climate projections for demand forecasting and resilience planning.

Developed by CEEW, CRAVIS brings together more than four decades of historical climate data and projections up to 2070. The platform provides district-, grid- and state-level analysis across 279 indicators and more than 20 analysis-ready metrics covering temperature, precipitation and humidity, including extreme heat days, heavy rainfall events, drought severity and longest dry spells.

The system draws on data from institutions including the India Meteorological Department, IITM Pune, Central Electricity Authority, Forest Survey of India and IIT Delhi, among others.

CRAVIS also allows climate information to be overlaid with sectoral datasets covering areas such as power infrastructure, agriculture, land use, public health and population, enabling more integrated assessment of climate risks.

Designed as a collaborative data commons, the platform will allow organisations and partners to contribute datasets and analysis, with the system expected to evolve as underlying information is updated.

For Odisha, the message emerging from the assessment is clear: preparing for climate change will require looking beyond the total amount of rainfall and focusing equally on its distribution, extremes and variability, while treating rising daytime and night-time heat as an increasingly urgent development challenge.