PM Surya Ghar: Odisha’s rooftop solar story is strong on conversion, but weak on capacity

The state has converted applications into installations at a rate above the national average, but the size of its rooftop solar systems remains significantly lower, says PRIYABRAT BISWAL

India's rooftop solar programme, PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana, is entering a phase in which the quality and scale of implementation matter as much as the number of households showing interest. The programme, launched by the Union government in February 2024, seeks to accelerate residential rooftop solar adoption across the country and ultimately cover one crore households. With substantial central financial assistance available to eligible consumers, the scheme has created an unprecedented opportunity to take solar generation from large power plants to millions of individual homes.

The performance figures for India and Odisha offer an intriguing picture of how that transition is progressing. Odisha has generated 3,46,304 applications under the scheme and has converted 2,11,221 of them into installations, adding 486.25 MW of rooftop solar capacity. At the national level, 82,87,664 applications have resulted in 48,05,658 installations with a cumulative capacity of 16,902.92 MW. On the surface, Odisha's contribution represents a relatively modest share of the national programme. But a closer examination reveals that the state's performance cannot be judged simply by comparing the absolute number of applications or installations with India's much larger figures.

The most revealing measure is the rate at which applications have translated into completed installations. Nationally, the conversion works out to approximately 58 per cent. Odisha's corresponding figure is nearly 61 per cent. In practical terms, this means that Odisha has converted a slightly larger proportion of its applicant base into actual rooftop solar installations than the country as a whole. The state therefore does not appear to be facing a fundamental problem of converting consumer interest into completed systems. Indeed, on this particular parameter, Odisha is marginally ahead of the national average.

The picture changes when installed capacity is brought into the equation. India's 48.06 lakh installations have produced 16,902.92 MW, which translates into an average installed capacity of roughly 3.52 kW per installation. Odisha, despite having more than 2.11 lakh installations, has added 486.25 MW, giving an average of only around 2.30 kW per installation. The difference is substantial. The average rooftop system installed in Odisha is about one-third smaller than the national average.

This capacity differential is the central issue emerging from the figures. Odisha accounts for around 4.2 per cent of the country's applications and about 4.4 per cent of its installations, but its share of installed capacity is only about 2.9 per cent. In other words, the state is producing installations broadly in line with its share of applications, yet those installations are generating considerably less capacity than the national pattern would suggest.

The same conclusion emerges when capacity is considered against the application base. India's 82.88 lakh applications correspond to approximately 2.04 kW of installed capacity for every application. Odisha's 3.46 lakh applications correspond to only about 1.40 kW per application. That places Odisha roughly 31 per cent below the national level on this measure. The gap becomes even more pronounced when completed installations are considered, with Odisha's average of about 2.30 kW compared with India's 3.52 kW.

This does not necessarily mean that Odisha's rooftop solar programme is administratively weaker than the national programme. The size of an individual rooftop system depends on several factors, including household electricity consumption, roof area, sanctioned load, consumer investment decisions and the technical suitability of individual properties. A larger number of small systems can therefore produce fewer megawatts than a smaller number of larger installations. Nevertheless, the figures establish a clear capacity gap, and that gap is important because the ultimate energy impact of rooftop solar depends on generation capacity rather than merely the number of installations.

The experience of Odisha's four distribution companies adds another layer to the analysis. Their individual performance shows that the state's overall position conceals considerable variation in the pace and character of implementation.

TP Central Odisha Distribution Ltd has the largest application base among the four, with 1,14,413 applications, of which 68,252 have resulted in installations. Its installed capacity stands at 169.64 MW. The conversion rate is therefore close to 60 per cent, broadly comparable with the national figure and slightly below Odisha's overall rate. What distinguishes the Central DISCOM is the size of the systems being installed. Its average capacity per completed installation works out to around 2.49 kW, the highest among Odisha's four distribution companies. Even so, this remains substantially below the national average of about 3.52 kW.

TP Western Odisha Distribution Ltd presents a different picture. It has received 86,593 applications and completed 57,892 installations, resulting in a conversion rate of almost 67 per cent. This is the highest among the four Odisha DISCOMs and is also clearly above the national average. Its installed capacity of 139.65 MW gives an average system size of roughly 2.41 kW. Western Odisha thus demonstrates that a comparatively high rate of application-to-installation conversion can be achieved, although the capacity associated with each installation remains below the national benchmark.

TP Northern Odisha Distribution Ltd has received 84,947 applications and completed 54,435 installations, giving it a conversion rate of approximately 64 per cent. Its performance on this measure is also comfortably above the national average. However, its 115.87 MW of installed capacity translates into an average system size of about 2.13 kW. The Northern DISCOM therefore has a relatively strong conversion record but a more modest capacity outcome.

The most pronounced gap appears in TP Southern Odisha Distribution Ltd. Against 60,496 applications, the DISCOM has completed 30,784 installations, producing a conversion rate of approximately 51 per cent. That is below both the national average and Odisha's overall conversion rate. Its installed capacity of 61.24 MW is also the lowest among the four DISCOMs, while its average system size is approximately 1.99 kW, again the lowest in the state.

The DISCOM-wise figures consequently point towards different implementation challenges rather than one uniform statewide problem. Central Odisha has the largest scale and the highest average installation capacity. Western Odisha has the strongest conversion of applications into installations. Northern Odisha combines a high conversion rate with a moderate system size. Southern Odisha, by contrast, has room for improvement in both the conversion of applications and the capacity realised from completed installations.

This distinction is important for assessing the next phase of PM Surya Ghar in Odisha. If performance is judged only by the number of applications received, the emphasis remains on generating consumer demand. If installations are the principal measure, the focus shifts towards processing applications, completing technical formalities and connecting systems to the grid. But once a state reaches a reasonably high installation conversion rate, the next question has to be how much generating capacity those installations are creating.

Odisha's figures suggest that this is now the more significant question. The state has already demonstrated that applications can be converted into installations at a rate slightly better than the national average. The challenge is to raise the capacity intensity of those installations. At the present average of around 2.30 kW per installation, Odisha would need either more installations of larger capacity or a greater proportion of households opting for systems capable of meeting a larger share of their electricity requirements.

The scale of the potential gap becomes apparent through a simple comparison. If Odisha's existing installations had the same average capacity as installations nationally, the state's installed capacity would be considerably higher than the reported 486.25 MW. Similarly, if the state's applications were producing capacity at the national average rate, the resulting capacity would also be substantially greater. These comparisons should not be interpreted as targets or forecasts, since household characteristics differ across regions, but they demonstrate the magnitude of the capacity-intensity difference.

The issue also has implications for the role of DISCOMs. Under a rooftop-solar programme, the distribution company becomes a crucial part of the implementation chain. Consumer awareness may generate an application, but the journey from application to a functioning rooftop system involves technical assessment, approvals, installation, inspection, metering and grid connectivity. The differences between the four Odisha DISCOMs indicate that the pace of this chain is not uniform across the state.

The relatively high conversion rates in Western and Northern Odisha suggest that significant portions of the application pipeline can be taken through to installation efficiently. Southern Odisha's lower conversion rate indicates that the application pipeline there requires closer examination. The reasons could range from consumer-side decisions and financing constraints to technical, procedural or connectivity-related issues, and the available figures alone cannot establish which factors are responsible. What the numbers do show is where the implementation gap is most visible.

At the same time, the capacity figures suggest that improving conversion alone will not close Odisha's national gap. Even the DISCOM with the highest conversion rate has an average system size well below the national level. This makes system capacity an important second-generation performance indicator for the programme.

The broader significance of PM Surya Ghar lies in its potential to transform ordinary electricity consumers into distributed generators. Instead of rooftop solar being limited to a relatively small group of households with the financial means and technical inclination to install systems independently, the scheme seeks to make residential solar adoption a mass phenomenon. The scale of India's numbers — more than 82 lakh applications and over 48 lakh installations in the figures under consideration — illustrates the enormous demand that has emerged around the programme.

Odisha has established a substantial presence within that national effort. More than three lakh applications and over two lakh installations represent a sizeable rooftop-solar base for the state. The state's installation conversion rate also indicates that consumer interest is not merely remaining on paper. The concern is that the capacity being added per installation is significantly lower than the national level.

That makes Odisha's next challenge more qualitative than quantitative. Increasing the number of installations remains important, particularly in areas where application conversion is relatively weak, but equal attention needs to be given to the capacity of the systems being installed. A programme that succeeds in placing solar panels on a very large number of rooftops but predominantly through smaller systems will have a different energy impact from one that achieves a comparable installation count with substantially higher average capacity.

The figures therefore suggest that Odisha should assess PM Surya Ghar through two complementary lenses. The first is implementation efficiency — how successfully applications are being converted into operational rooftop systems. The second is capacity efficiency — how much solar generating capacity is being created through those installations. On the first measure, Odisha compares favourably with the national average. On the second, a significant gap remains.

For the four DISCOMs, the lesson is equally differentiated. The stronger conversion performance visible in Western and Northern Odisha offers evidence of a relatively efficient application-to-installation pipeline, while Central Odisha's higher average system capacity shows the potential for increasing the capacity contribution of individual installations. Southern Odisha's comparatively low conversion and smaller average system size make it the clearest area for further investigation and improvement.

Ultimately, the success of PM Surya Ghar in Odisha will not be captured adequately by a single number. Applications show the level of public participation; installations demonstrate the programme's ability to turn interest into physical assets; and megawatts reveal the actual scale of renewable-energy capacity being created. Odisha has made meaningful progress from the first stage to the second. The data now indicate that the next test is the distance it can travel from installations to higher-capacity rooftop generation.

The state's rooftop-solar story, therefore, is neither one of broad underperformance nor one of complete convergence with the national picture. It is a story of stronger-than-national-average conversion accompanied by a substantial capacity gap. Closing that gap — while improving conversion in weaker-performing areas — will determine how effectively Odisha can translate the momentum generated by PM Surya Ghar into a deeper and more productive residential solar revolution.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of this website or its management. The author may be reached at: [email protected])