THEBUSINESSBYTES
BUREAU
MUMBAI,
FEBRUARY 4, 2026
Shares of Vedanta Ltd. and Hindustan
Zinc Ltd. remained in focus on Tuesday, extending gains as easing selling
pressure in precious metals helped lift the Nifty Metal index by around 2.87
per cent. Vedanta Ltd. shares advanced nearly 2.3 per cent, while Hindustan
Zinc rose 2.7 per cent, following a sharp pullback in bullion prices that had
weighed heavily on metal stocks last week.
The rebound in metal counters comes
after an aggressive global commodities selloff towards the end of January. The
risk-off sentiment was further amplified by a broader equity market decline
across Asia, where technology stocks dragged benchmarks lower amid concerns
over stretched valuations and rising spending on artificial intelligence.
Market sentiment toward Vedanta has
also strengthened following its robust Q3 FY26 earnings performance. Several
brokerages have reiterated their bullish stance on the company after the
results. Based on revised estimates from leading brokerage houses including
Citi, Nuvama, Kotak Institutional Equities, Emkay Global, Investec and ICICI
Securities, the current target price range for Vedanta shares stands between ₹850 and ₹930, reflecting expectations of stronger
earnings, favourable
commodity prices and improving confidence in the company’s balance sheet
trajectory.
According to Nuvama, Vedanta’s
proposed demerger is expected to conclude in Q1 FY27, with April 1, 2026,
projected as the effective date. The brokerage highlighted that the company is
in the process of commissioning a 435 ktpa aluminium plant, which is likely to
be fully operational by H1 FY27. Nuvama has revised its target price for
Vedanta to ₹899.
“We are raising FY27E/28E EBITDA estimates by
4% to factor in higher aluminium prices, assuming FY27/28 LME aluminium prices
of USD 3,100 and USD 2,850 compared to earlier estimates of USD 3,000 and USD
2,750. We expect EBITDA to register a compounded annual growth rate of 21% over
FY25–28E. On a marked-to-market basis, assuming LME aluminium at USD 3,200,
zinc at USD 3,400, silver at USD 110 and USD/INR at 92, FY28E EBITDA is likely
to reach around ₹1,049 billion, implying a fair value
of ₹1,274,” Nuvama stated.
Motilal Oswal also maintained a strong
near-term outlook on Vedanta, noting that the company’s earnings aligned with
expectations and were supported by favourable commodity prices and improved
volumes. The brokerage has set a target price of ₹810
for the stock.
“Vedanta’s Q3 FY26 operational performance was
largely in line with expectations, supported by higher volumes and favourable
LME prices. We have increased our FY26 revenue, EBITDA and PAT estimates by 4 per
cent, 3 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively, factoring in the strong
earnings performance during the quarter,” Motilal Oswal said.
The brokerage further noted that
Vedanta’s capital expenditure plans are progressing steadily and are expected
to result in additional cost savings. The management remains focused on
sustaining strong earnings growth, supported by upcoming capacity expansions
and the production of higher value-added products. The company is also
continuing its deleveraging efforts, with higher future cash flows expected to
support both expansion and debt reduction plans.
Kotak Institutional Equities has set a
target price of ₹890, while Citi has pegged its
target at ₹900, reflecting confidence in Vedanta’s earnings visibility and
strengthening balance sheet. Emkay Global Financial Services and ICICI
Securities have also revised their target prices upward to ₹850 each
following the Q3 performance.
JPMorgan has also expressed a positive
outlook, highlighting that Vedanta’s key capacity expansion projects are
progressing as scheduled. The Balco smelter (435 kt) and Lanjigarh alumina
refinery Train-2 are ramping up production, while the Sijimali bauxite mine and
Ghogarpalli coal mine are expected to be commissioned in the first and second
halves of FY27, respectively.
Meanwhile, research firm Investec has
taken note of the successful execution of Vedanta Resources’ debt refinancing,
which is expected to lower borrowing costs in FY27 and FY28. Investec has set
the highest target price of ₹930 for
Vedanta and projected a dividend yield of around 4–5 per cent for FY27–28E.
For the third quarter, Vedanta
reported a 60 per cent year-on-year jump in profit after tax to ₹7,807 crore. The company also recorded its highest-ever
quarterly revenue of ₹45,899 crore, marking a 19 per cent year-on-year increase. Its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio
improved to 1.23x from 1.40x, indicating strengthening financial stability
and improved balance sheet health.